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Indian Monsoon 2020

As it is said ‘The only thing constant in this world is CHANGE’ similar way ‘UNCERTAINTY is the only certain thing about wind’.
It would have been easier for wind analysts if the earth were not rotating around its axis, so just sea-land uneven heating as the only factor for wind. But spinning of earth around its 23.50 tilted axis has made wind as 24X365 ‘LIVE’ phenomena. Of course, with its nature of being ‘Uncertain’.

We at Vortex, help our clients to reduce uncertainties and so let them find correct wind information at their locations, which is the main component of any wind farm development projects.

Let us start with, what seasonal predictions are saying in these important months?

We do these predictions to some of our clients, specific to their wind farm regions. It could be interesting for the industry to have a look, what our month ahead prediction said about April till July and check if August & September information is useful.

Electricity generated during 2018-19 was 62 TWh, assuming 70% of this energy comes during May till September (monsoon months) which is about 43.4 TWh. And 40% energy loss in these 5 monsoon months accounts to be 17.36 TWh & in terms of money, it’s about 4500 crores.

Calling this as ‘loss’ may be unfair, as ‘Climate is rarely reproducible’. But important to ensure that one has harnessed 100% wind at his location, which is something in our control.

And also, these general statements related to low monsoon trends are not sufficient to talk about wind farm level performance, as real picture at our farm might be too different. As we can see in below anomaly maps except for July, the spatial distribution of anomalies needs to study carefully.

We at Vortex, with help of our group company Climate Scale, studied 43 random sites in India, to compare long term trends in reference to 40 years (1980-2019) ERA5 data and also wrt 20th-century wind trends.

The model captured this 1998-2010 temperature reduction in sea-land contrast, in terms of lowest windy years and same has noticed on 95% plus sites out of these 43 (except 2 locations). The underlying reason for the decline in monsoon winds is strong warming in the Indian ocean and reduction in sea-land contrast.

Our Climate Scale team is doing region-specific studies to reach more specific reasons for low monsoon trend during 2020 and provide reliable decadal predictions to developers, investors, IPPs, banks.

o The study is focused from April to August 2020.
o Monsoon rain and monsoon wind relations.
o Excess pre-monsoon showers all over India.
o Nisarg cyclone influence on June & July month wind.
o Excess rain during June in Assam, Bihar, West Bengal etc states of India.
o Climate change effect over EIO (equatorial Indian ocean) & Indian continent o Monsoon patterns in the last 10 years.
o Climate scale predictions for the next 10 years.

Please contact us at dhanaji.patil@vortexfdc.com or at +919850952956 for further details.